Unit 16A any elk, muzzleloader, Sep 25–Oct 15
How many bonus points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
77 residents applied (57 as their 1st choice, 20 as their 2nd) and 4 drew a permit (1 in 19.3 overall). All 4 permits were drawn at random: an estimated 1.2% chance at 0 points, rising to 13% at 11 points.
No sure draw
32 nonresidents applied (23 as their 1st choice, 9 as their 2nd) and 2 drew a permit (1 in 16.0 overall). Everyone with 11 or more points who put this hunt first drew. 1 permit went through the bonus pass (lowest level: 11 points). The other permit was drawn at random: an estimated <1% chance at 0 points, rising to 6.6% at 7 points.
Sure draw at 11+ points
Compare every Arizona elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by bonus points
Residents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 in 4.0 | |
| 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 in 9.0 | |
| 4 | 12 | 2 | 1 in 6.0 | |
| 3 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 15 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| All | 77 | 4 | 1 in 19.3 |
Nonresidents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 in 7.0 | |
| 2 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| All | 32 | 2 | 1 in 16.0 |
Hunt details
| Hunt number | 3112 (2026 draw; AZGFD renumbers hunts every year) |
|---|---|
| Season | Sep 25 - Oct 15, 2026 |
| Open areas | 16A (excluding Mohave County Park Lands) |
| Legal animal | Any elk |
| Permits authorized | 6 (nonresidents can get at most 10%) |
From AZGFD's 2026 hunt-draw booklet. Check the current regulations for boundaries, restrictions and the notes on each hunt.
Trends, 2025–2026
"Sure at" is the fewest bonus points where every applicant drew that year. Hunt numbers change every year, so earlier years are matched by unit, legal animal, weapon and season.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 95 | 2 | 1 in 47.5 | — |
| 2026 | 77 | 4 | 1 in 19.3 | — |
Applicants fell 19% since 2025.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47 | 4 | 1 in 11.8 | 15 |
| 2026 | 32 | 2 | 1 in 16.0 | 11 |
Points for a sure draw: 15 in 2025, 11 in 2026. The bar has been falling. Applicants fell 32% since 2025.
How this draw works
Arizona gives 20% of each hunt's permits to the applicants with the most bonus points (the "bonus pass"), checking 1st and 2nd choices. Everyone left is then drawn at random for their 1st and 2nd choices, and each bonus point gives you one extra random number; your best number is the one used. 3rd to 5th choices only get what's left. Nonresidents can get at most 10% of a hunt's permits. Drawing a permit resets your points for that species to zero. AZGFD's draw information.
About the numbers. AZGFD's Bonus Point Report counts permits for 1st- and 2nd-choice applicants together, so "applicants" here means everyone who listed this hunt as a 1st or 2nd choice, and "drew" means permits issued in the bonus pass and the 1st/2nd-choice pass. The estimated chance applies the draw's own rules to this year's applicants; it's an estimate, not a promise. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 16A
- Any elk, Sep 4–24, archery 3189 · 48 applicants