Unit 4B bull elk, Sep 25–Oct 1
How many bonus points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
2,310 residents applied (1,051 as their 1st choice, 1,259 as their 2nd) and 14 drew a permit (1 in 165.0 overall). Everyone with 21 or more points who put this hunt first drew. 3 permits went through the bonus pass (lowest level: 20 points). The other 11 permits were drawn at random: an estimated <1% chance at 0 points, rising to 1.9% at 19 points.
Sure draw at 21+ points
393 nonresidents applied (157 as their 1st choice, 236 as their 2nd) and 1 drew a permit (1 in 393.0 overall). The only permit was drawn at random: an estimated <1% chance at 0 points, rising to 1.4% at 25 points.
No sure draw
Compare every Arizona elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by bonus points
Residents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 19 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 12 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 15 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 23 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 48 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 42 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 65 | 3 | 1 in 21.7 | |
| 8 | 95 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 119 | 2 | 1 in 59.5 | |
| 6 | 138 | 1 | 1 in 138.0 | |
| 5 | 174 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 205 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 271 | 4 | 1 in 67.8 | |
| 2 | 389 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 359 | 1 | 1 in 359.0 | |
| 0 | 310 | 0 | — | |
| All | 2,310 | 14 | 1 in 165.0 |
Nonresidents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 23 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 21 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 20 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 17 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 20 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 24 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 53 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 55 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 63 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 88 | 0 | — | |
| All | 393 | 1 | 1 in 393.0 |
Why didn't everyone above the bonus cutoff draw? AZGFD counts 1st- and 2nd-choice applicants together. 2 applicants above the cutoff listed this hunt 2nd and had already drawn their 1st choice, so the green levels show 100% for anyone who puts this hunt first.
Hunt details
| Hunt number | 3002 (2026 draw; AZGFD renumbers hunts every year) |
|---|---|
| Season | Sep 25 - Oct 1, 2026 |
| Open areas | 4B |
| Legal animal | Bull elk |
| Permits authorized | 15 (nonresidents can get at most 10%) |
From AZGFD's 2026 hunt-draw booklet. Check the current regulations for boundaries, restrictions and the notes on each hunt.
Trends, 2025–2026
"Sure at" is the fewest bonus points where every applicant drew that year. Hunt numbers change every year, so earlier years are matched by unit, legal animal, weapon and season.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2,170 | 14 | 1 in 155.0 | 21 |
| 2026 | 2,310 | 14 | 1 in 165.0 | 21 |
Points for a sure draw: 21 in 2025, 21 in 2026. The bar has held steady at about 21 points. Applicants rose 6% since 2025.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 363 | 1 | 1 in 363.0 | — |
| 2026 | 393 | 1 | 1 in 393.0 | — |
Applicants rose 8% since 2025.
How this draw works
Arizona gives 20% of each hunt's permits to the applicants with the most bonus points (the "bonus pass"), checking 1st and 2nd choices. Everyone left is then drawn at random for their 1st and 2nd choices, and each bonus point gives you one extra random number; your best number is the one used. 3rd to 5th choices only get what's left. Nonresidents can get at most 10% of a hunt's permits. Drawing a permit resets your points for that species to zero. AZGFD's draw information.
About the numbers. AZGFD's Bonus Point Report counts permits for 1st- and 2nd-choice applicants together, so "applicants" here means everyone who listed this hunt as a 1st or 2nd choice, and "drew" means permits issued in the bonus pass and the 1st/2nd-choice pass. The estimated chance applies the draw's own rules to this year's applicants; it's an estimate, not a promise. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 4B
- Antlerless elk, Nov 6–12 3038 · 775 applicants
- Antlerless elk, Sep 11–24, archery 3174 · 63 applicants
- Any elk (challenged hunters, CHAMP), Oct 9–15 3096 · 205 applicants
- Bull elk, Nov 27–Dec 3 3014 · 1,182 applicants
- Bull elk, Sep 11–24, archery 3130 · 1,082 applicants
- Buck pronghorn, Sep 4–13 2007 · 3,236 applicants
- Buck pronghorn, Aug 21–Sep 3, archery 2042 · 276 applicants