Units 15A, 15B and 18A bull elk, Sep 25–Oct 1
How many bonus points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
682 residents applied (378 as their 1st choice, 304 as their 2nd) and 32 drew a permit (1 in 21.3 overall). Everyone with 15 or more points who put this hunt first drew. 6 permits went through the bonus pass (lowest level: 14 points). The other 26 permits were drawn at random: an estimated 1.0% chance at 0 points, rising to 13% at 13 points.
Sure draw at 15+ points
367 nonresidents applied (215 as their 1st choice, 152 as their 2nd) and 3 drew a permit (1 in 122.3 overall). Everyone with 26 or more points who put this hunt first drew. 1 permit went through the bonus pass (lowest level: 26 points). The other 2 permits were drawn at random: an estimated <1% chance at 0 points, rising to 2.1% at 25 points.
Sure draw at 26+ points
Compare every Arizona elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by bonus points
Residents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 9 | 3 | 1 in 3.0 | |
| 9 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 21 | 3 | 1 in 7.0 | |
| 6 | 34 | 2 | 1 in 17.0 | |
| 5 | 36 | 1 | 1 in 36.0 | |
| 4 | 64 | 1 | 1 in 64.0 | |
| 3 | 87 | 6 | 1 in 14.5 | |
| 2 | 139 | 6 | 1 in 23.2 | |
| 1 | 127 | 3 | 1 in 42.3 | |
| 0 | 119 | 0 | — | |
| All | 682 | 32 | 1 in 21.3 |
Nonresidents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 25 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 24 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 23 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 22 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 21 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 19 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 19 | 1 | 1 in 19.0 | |
| 7 | 21 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 30 | 1 | 1 in 30.0 | |
| 5 | 32 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 20 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 37 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 34 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 48 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 47 | 0 | — | |
| All | 367 | 3 | 1 in 122.3 |
Hunt details
| Hunt number | 3006 (2026 draw; AZGFD renumbers hunts every year) |
|---|---|
| Season | Sep 25 - Oct 1, 2026 |
| Open areas | 15A, 15B, and 18A |
| Legal animal | Bull elk |
| Permits authorized | 35 (nonresidents can get at most 10%) |
From AZGFD's 2026 hunt-draw booklet. Check the current regulations for boundaries, restrictions and the notes on each hunt.
Trends, 2025–2026
"Sure at" is the fewest bonus points where every applicant drew that year. Hunt numbers change every year, so earlier years are matched by unit, legal animal, weapon and season.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 542 | 32 | 1 in 16.9 | 12 |
| 2026 | 682 | 32 | 1 in 21.3 | 15 |
Points for a sure draw: 12 in 2025, 15 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 26% since 2025.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 236 | 3 | 1 in 78.7 | 25 |
| 2026 | 367 | 3 | 1 in 122.3 | 26 |
Points for a sure draw: 25 in 2025, 26 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 56% since 2025.
How this draw works
Arizona gives 20% of each hunt's permits to the applicants with the most bonus points (the "bonus pass"), checking 1st and 2nd choices. Everyone left is then drawn at random for their 1st and 2nd choices, and each bonus point gives you one extra random number; your best number is the one used. 3rd to 5th choices only get what's left. Nonresidents can get at most 10% of a hunt's permits. Drawing a permit resets your points for that species to zero. AZGFD's draw information.
About the numbers. AZGFD's Bonus Point Report counts permits for 1st- and 2nd-choice applicants together, so "applicants" here means everyone who listed this hunt as a 1st or 2nd choice, and "drew" means permits issued in the bonus pass and the 1st/2nd-choice pass. The estimated chance applies the draw's own rules to this year's applicants; it's an estimate, not a promise. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Units 15A, 15B and 18A
- Antlerless elk, Dec 4–10 3054 · 242 applicants
- Bull elk, Nov 27–Dec 3 3024 · 268 applicants
- Bull elk, Sep 11–24, archery 3144 · 119 applicants