Units 15A and 15B buck pronghorn, muzzleloader, Sep 4–13
How many bonus points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
82 residents applied (39 as their 1st choice, 43 as their 2nd) and 1 drew a permit (1 in 82.0 overall). The only permit was drawn at random: an estimated <1% chance at 0 points, rising to 3.4% at 25 points.
No sure draw
10 nonresidents applied (5 as their 1st choice, 5 as their 2nd), but no permits went to nonresidents in the first two passes.
Compare every Arizona pronghorn hunt at your point level →
Odds by bonus points
Residents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 22 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 20 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 19 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| All | 82 | 1 | 1 in 82.0 |
Nonresidents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| All | 10 | 0 | — |
Hunt details
| Hunt number | 2032 (2026 draw; AZGFD renumbers hunts every year) |
|---|---|
| Season | Sep 4 - Sep 13, 2026 |
| Open areas | 15A and 15B |
| Legal animal | Buck pronghorn |
| Permits authorized | 1 (nonresidents can get at most 10%) |
From AZGFD's 2026 hunt-draw booklet. Check the current regulations for boundaries, restrictions and the notes on each hunt.
Trends, 2025–2026
"Sure at" is the fewest bonus points where every applicant drew that year. Hunt numbers change every year, so earlier years are matched by unit, legal animal, weapon and season.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 77 | 1 | 1 in 77.0 | — |
| 2026 | 82 | 1 | 1 in 82.0 | — |
Applicants rose 6% since 2025.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15 | 0 | — | — |
| 2026 | 10 | 0 | — | — |
Applicants fell 33% since 2025.
How this draw works
Arizona gives 20% of each hunt's permits to the applicants with the most bonus points (the "bonus pass"), checking 1st and 2nd choices. Everyone left is then drawn at random for their 1st and 2nd choices, and each bonus point gives you one extra random number; your best number is the one used. 3rd to 5th choices only get what's left. Nonresidents can get at most 10% of a hunt's permits. Drawing a permit resets your points for that species to zero. AZGFD's draw information.
About the numbers. AZGFD's Bonus Point Report counts permits for 1st- and 2nd-choice applicants together, so "applicants" here means everyone who listed this hunt as a 1st or 2nd choice, and "drew" means permits issued in the bonus pass and the 1st/2nd-choice pass. The estimated chance applies the draw's own rules to this year's applicants; it's an estimate, not a promise. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Units 15A and 15B
- Buck pronghorn, Aug 21–Sep 3, archery 2053 · 30 applicants