Unit 21 either-sex elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
111 adult residents put this hunt first; 111 drew (100%). Drawn out at 0 preference points: 78 of 78 applicants with 0 drew.
Any points drew
168 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 52 drew (31%). Drawn out at 4 preference points: 24 of 27 applicants with 4 drew. 93% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 4 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 1 | 19 | 19 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 0 | 78 | 78 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| All | 111 | 111 | 1 in 1.0 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 8 | 8 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 5 | 11 | 9 | 1 in 1.2 | |
| 4 | 27 | 24 | 1 in 1.1 | |
| 3 | 29 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 22 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 24 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 36 | 0 | — | |
| All | 168 | 52 | 1 in 3.2 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 134 | 119 | 1 in 1.1 | 0 |
| 2025 | 130 | 121 | 1 in 1.1 | 0 |
| 2026 | 111 | 111 | 1 in 1.0 | 0 |
Drawn out at: 0 in 2024, 0 in 2025, 0 in 2026. The bar has held steady at about 0 points. Applicants fell 17% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 170 | 41 | 1 in 4.1 | 3 |
| 2025 | 162 | 42 | 1 in 3.9 | 4 |
| 2026 | 168 | 52 | 1 in 3.2 | 4 |
Drawn out at: 3 in 2024, 4 in 2025, 4 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 4 points to be needed in 2027.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 21
- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF021O1M · 15 applicants
- Cow elk, 1st rifle season EF021O1R · 49 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF021O2R · 243 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF021O3R · 127 applicants
- Cow elk, 4th rifle season EF021O4R · 23 applicants
- Either-sex elk, 1st rifle season EE021O1R · 399 applicants
- Either-sex elk, 4th rifle season EE021O4R · 145 applicants
- Either-sex elk, private land only, season 1, archery EE021P1A · 1 applicants
- Either-sex elk, private land only, season 1, rifle EE021P1R · 11 applicants
- Either-sex elk, nonresident archery season EE021V1A · 0 applicants
- Buck deer, archery season DM021O1A · 82 applicants
- Buck deer, muzzleloader season DM021O1M · 42 applicants