Unit 10 bull elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
93 adult residents put this hunt first; 4 drew (4.3%). Drawn out at 25 preference points: 2 of 4 applicants with 25 drew. 1 drew below the cutoff, through the hybrid random draw (about 1.4% of eligible applicants with 5+ points).
Drawn out at 25 points
112 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 1 drew (<1%). Drawn out at 33 preference points: 1 of 4 applicants with 33 drew.
Drawn out at 33 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 24 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 23 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 21 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 20 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 19 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 in 7.0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| All | 93 | 4 | 1 in 23.3 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 4 | 1 | 1 in 4.0 | |
| 32 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 31 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 30 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 29 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 28 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 27 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 26 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 25 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 24 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 20 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 16 | 0 | — | |
| All | 112 | 1 | 1 in 112.0 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 96 | 3 | 1 in 32.0 | 24 |
| 2025 | 118 | 4 | 1 in 29.5 | 24 |
| 2026 | 93 | 4 | 1 in 23.3 | 25 |
Drawn out at: 24 in 2024, 24 in 2025, 25 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 26 points to be needed in 2027.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 70 | 1 | 1 in 70.0 | 31 |
| 2025 | 102 | 1 | 1 in 102.0 | 32 |
| 2026 | 112 | 1 | 1 in 112.0 | 33 |
Drawn out at: 31 in 2024, 32 in 2025, 33 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 60% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. This hunt also has a hybrid draw: up to 20% of licenses go at random to applicants with 5 or more points who fall below the cutoff. Nonresidents could get at most 20% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 10
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- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF010O2R · 42 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF010O3R · 29 applicants
- Cow elk, 4th rifle season EF010O4R · 72 applicants
- Cow elk, private land only, season 5, rifle EF010P5R · 37 applicants
- Cow elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle EF010W1R · 50 applicants
- Either-sex elk, early season, rifle EE010E1R · 962 applicants
- Either-sex elk, archery season EE010O1A · 273 applicants
- Either-sex elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle EE010W1R · 78 applicants
- Buck deer, archery season DM010O1A · 50 applicants
- Buck deer, muzzleloader season DM010O1M · 39 applicants