Unit 46 bull elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
42 adult residents put this hunt first; 21 drew (50%). Drawn out at 0 preference points: 3 of 23 applicants with 0 drew. 95% of applicants with more points drew.
Any points drew
29 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 7 drew (24%). Drawn out at 3 preference points: 1 of 9 applicants with 3 drew.
Drawn out at 3 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 1 in 1.1 | |
| 0 | 23 | 3 | 1 in 7.7 | |
| All | 42 | 21 | 1 in 2.0 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 in 9.0 | |
| 2 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| All | 29 | 7 | 1 in 4.1 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 41 | 21 | 1 in 2.0 | 1 |
| 2025 | 45 | 23 | 1 in 2.0 | 1 |
| 2026 | 42 | 21 | 1 in 2.0 | 0 |
Drawn out at: 1 in 2024, 1 in 2025, 0 in 2026. The bar has been falling.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | 7 | 1 in 2.9 | 2 |
| 2025 | 20 | 7 | 1 in 2.9 | 1 |
| 2026 | 29 | 7 | 1 in 4.1 | 3 |
Drawn out at: 2 in 2024, 1 in 2025, 3 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 4 points to be needed in 2027. Applicants rose 45% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 46
- Bull elk, 1st rifle season EM046O1R · 36 applicants
- Bull elk, 2nd rifle season EM046O2R · 39 applicants
- Bull elk, 3rd rifle season EM046O3R · 14 applicants
- Bull elk, 4th rifle season EM046O4R · 11 applicants
- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF046O1M · 15 applicants
- Cow elk, 1st rifle season EF046O1R · 5 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF046O2R · 25 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF046O3R · 12 applicants
- Cow elk, private land only, season 5, rifle EF046P5R · 18 applicants
- Either-sex elk, archery season EE046O1A · 106 applicants