Unit 48 bull elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
69 adult residents put this hunt first; 28 drew (41%). Drawn out at 2 preference points: 20 of 20 applicants with 2 drew. 89% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 2 points
31 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 9 drew (29%). Drawn out at 8 preference points: 5 of 6 applicants with 8 drew.
Drawn out at 8 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| 2 | 20 | 20 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 1 | 29 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| All | 69 | 28 | 1 in 2.5 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 8 | 6 | 5 | 1 in 1.2 | |
| 7 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| All | 31 | 9 | 1 in 3.4 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 61 | 24 | 1 in 2.5 | 2 |
| 2025 | 64 | 29 | 1 in 2.2 | 1 |
| 2026 | 69 | 28 | 1 in 2.5 | 2 |
Drawn out at: 2 in 2024, 1 in 2025, 2 in 2026. The bar has held steady at about 2 points. Applicants rose 13% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30 | 8 | 1 in 3.8 | 6 |
| 2025 | 25 | 9 | 1 in 2.8 | 7 |
| 2026 | 31 | 9 | 1 in 3.4 | 8 |
Drawn out at: 6 in 2024, 7 in 2025, 8 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 48
- Bull elk, 1st rifle season EM048O1R · 150 applicants
- Bull elk, 2nd rifle season EM048O2R · 47 applicants
- Bull elk, 3rd rifle season EM048O3R · 26 applicants
- Bull elk, 4th rifle season EM048O4R · 16 applicants
- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF048O1M · 29 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF048O2R · 86 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF048O3R · 41 applicants
- Cow elk, 4th rifle season EF048O4R · 27 applicants
- Either-sex elk, archery season EE048O1A · 147 applicants
- Buck deer, early season, rifle DM048E1R · 108 applicants
- Buck deer, archery season DM048O1A · 207 applicants
- Buck deer, muzzleloader season DM048O1M · 128 applicants