Unit 76 bull elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
276 adult residents put this hunt first; 51 drew (18%). Drawn out at 12 preference points: 10 of 25 applicants with 12 drew. 91% of applicants with more points drew. 12 drew below the cutoff, through the hybrid random draw (about 7.5% of eligible applicants with 5+ points).
Drawn out at 12 points
143 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 12 drew (8.4%). Drawn out at 26 preference points: 3 of 6 applicants with 26 drew.
Drawn out at 26 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 16 | 5 | 5 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 15 | 6 | 5 | 1 in 1.2 | |
| 14 | 6 | 4 | 1 in 1.5 | |
| 13 | 11 | 11 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 12 | 25 | 10 | 1 in 2.5 | |
| 11 | 26 | 1 | 1 in 26.0 | |
| 10 | 20 | 1 | 1 in 20.0 | |
| 9 | 18 | 1 | 1 in 18.0 | |
| 8 | 18 | 3 | 1 in 6.0 | |
| 7 | 28 | 1 | 1 in 28.0 | |
| 6 | 26 | 2 | 1 in 13.0 | |
| 5 | 25 | 3 | 1 in 8.3 | |
| 4 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 15 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| All | 276 | 51 | 1 in 5.4 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 27 | 7 | 7 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 25 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 24 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 23 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 22 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 21 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 20 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 19 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| All | 143 | 12 | 1 in 11.9 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 220 | 48 | 1 in 4.6 | 11 |
| 2025 | 237 | 48 | 1 in 4.9 | 11 |
| 2026 | 276 | 51 | 1 in 5.4 | 12 |
Drawn out at: 11 in 2024, 11 in 2025, 12 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 12 points to be needed in 2027. Applicants rose 25% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 136 | 12 | 1 in 11.3 | 24 |
| 2025 | 149 | 12 | 1 in 12.4 | 25 |
| 2026 | 143 | 12 | 1 in 11.9 | 26 |
Drawn out at: 24 in 2024, 25 in 2025, 26 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 5% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. This hunt also has a hybrid draw: up to 20% of licenses go at random to applicants with 5 or more points who fall below the cutoff. Nonresidents could get at most 20% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 76
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- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF076O1M · 35 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF076O2R · 130 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF076O3R · 103 applicants
- Cow elk, 4th rifle season EF076O4R · 29 applicants
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- Buck deer, muzzleloader season DM076O1M · 71 applicants
- Buck deer, 2nd rifle season DM076O2R · 136 applicants