Unit 500 bull elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
120 adult residents put this hunt first; 30 drew (25%). Drawn out at 3 preference points: 18 of 31 applicants with 3 drew. 86% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 3 points
53 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 9 drew (17%). Drawn out at 8 preference points: 3 of 7 applicants with 8 drew. 86% of applicants with more points drew.
Drawn out at 8 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 11 | 9 | 1 in 1.2 | |
| 3 | 31 | 18 | 1 in 1.7 | |
| 2 | 31 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 25 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 19 | 0 | — | |
| All | 120 | 30 | 1 in 4.0 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 in 2.3 | |
| 7 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| All | 53 | 9 | 1 in 5.9 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 71 | 33 | 1 in 2.2 | 2 |
| 2025 | 103 | 33 | 1 in 3.1 | 2 |
| 2026 | 120 | 30 | 1 in 4.0 | 3 |
Drawn out at: 2 in 2024, 2 in 2025, 3 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 4 points to be needed in 2027. Applicants rose 69% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56 | 11 | 1 in 5.1 | 6 |
| 2025 | 74 | 11 | 1 in 6.7 | 7 |
| 2026 | 53 | 9 | 1 in 5.9 | 8 |
Drawn out at: 6 in 2024, 7 in 2025, 8 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants fell 5% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 500
- Bull elk, 1st rifle season EM500O1R · 169 applicants
- Bull elk, 2nd rifle season EM500O2R · 126 applicants
- Bull elk, 3rd rifle season EM500O3R · 35 applicants
- Bull elk, 4th rifle season EM500O4R · 16 applicants
- Cow elk, late season, rifle EF500L1R · 11 applicants
- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF500O1M · 80 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF500O2R · 166 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF500O3R · 60 applicants
- Cow elk, private land only, season 5, rifle EF500P5R · 29 applicants
- Either-sex elk, archery season EE500O1A · 216 applicants