Unit 501 bull elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
64 adult residents put this hunt first; 19 drew (30%). Drawn out at 6 preference points: 3 of 6 applicants with 6 drew.
Drawn out at 6 points
19 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 6 drew (32%). Drawn out at 9 preference points: 1 of 4 applicants with 9 drew.
Drawn out at 9 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 10 | 10 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 5 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 12 | 0 | — | |
| All | 64 | 19 | 1 in 3.4 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 in 4.0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| All | 19 | 6 | 1 in 3.2 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 65 | 19 | 1 in 3.4 | 4 |
| 2025 | 62 | 17 | 1 in 3.6 | 5 |
| 2026 | 64 | 19 | 1 in 3.4 | 6 |
Drawn out at: 4 in 2024, 5 in 2025, 6 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56 | 6 | 1 in 9.3 | 15 |
| 2025 | 35 | 6 | 1 in 5.8 | 16 |
| 2026 | 19 | 6 | 1 in 3.2 | 9 |
Drawn out at: 15 in 2024, 16 in 2025, 9 in 2026. The bar has been falling. Applicants fell 66% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 501
- Bull elk, 1st rifle season EM501O1R · 144 applicants
- Bull elk, 2nd rifle season EM501O2R · 112 applicants
- Bull elk, 3rd rifle season EM501O3R · 83 applicants
- Bull elk, 4th rifle season EM501O4R · 55 applicants
- Cow elk, late season, rifle EF501L1R · 50 applicants
- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF501O1M · 40 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF501O2R · 78 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF501O3R · 68 applicants
- Cow elk, 4th rifle season EF501O4R · 20 applicants
- Cow elk, private land only, season 5, rifle EF501P5R · 30 applicants
- Either-sex elk, archery season EE501O1A · 253 applicants
- Buck deer, 4th rifle season DM501O4R · 124 applicants