Unit 851 bull elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
12 adult residents put this hunt first; 4 drew (33%). Drawn out at 7 preference points: 2 of 2 applicants with 7 drew.
Drawn out at 7 points
2 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 1 drew (50%). Drawn out at 15 preference points: 1 of 1 applicants with 15 drew.
Drawn out at 15 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| All | 12 | 4 | 1 in 3.0 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| All | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12 | 4 | 1 in 3.0 | 4 |
| 2025 | 6 | 4 | 1 in 1.5 | 10 |
| 2026 | 12 | 4 | 1 in 3.0 | 7 |
Drawn out at: 4 in 2024, 10 in 2025, 7 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 1 | 1 in 6.0 | 14 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 1 in 10.0 | 22 |
| 2026 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | 15 |
Drawn out at: 14 in 2024, 22 in 2025, 15 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 16 points to be needed in 2027. Applicants fell 67% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 851
- Bull elk, 1st rifle season EM851O1R · 37 applicants
- Bull elk, 2nd rifle season EM851O2R · 26 applicants
- Bull elk, 3rd rifle season EM851O3R · 30 applicants
- Bull elk, 4th rifle season EM851O4R · 59 applicants
- Cow elk, late season, rifle EF851L1R · 5 applicants
- Cow elk, late season 2, rifle EF851L2R · 10 applicants
- Cow elk, late season 3, rifle EF851L3R · 6 applicants
- Cow elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle EF851W1R · 84 applicants
- Cow elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 2, rifle EF851W2R · 33 applicants
- Cow elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 6, rifle EF851W6R · 37 applicants
- Either-sex elk, archery season EE851O1A · 26 applicants
- Either-sex elk, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle EE851W1R · 174 applicants