Unit 16 buck pronghorn, 1st rifle season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
439 adult residents put this hunt first; 28 drew (6.4%). Drawn out at 17 preference points: 7 of 7 applicants with 17 drew. 4 drew below the cutoff, through the hybrid random draw (about 1.7% of eligible applicants with 5+ points).
Drawn out at 17 points
86 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 4 drew (4.7%). Drawn out at 21 preference points: 2 of 2 applicants with 21 drew. 2 drew below the cutoff, through the hybrid random draw (about 3.8% of eligible applicants with 5+ points).
Drawn out at 21 points
Compare every Colorado pronghorn hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 24 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 19 | 5 | 5 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 18 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 17 | 7 | 7 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 16 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 15 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 14 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 15 | 1 | 1 in 15.0 | |
| 9 | 25 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 35 | 2 | 1 in 17.5 | |
| 7 | 24 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 29 | 1 | 1 in 29.0 | |
| 5 | 32 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 35 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 36 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 38 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 31 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 43 | 0 | — | |
| All | 439 | 28 | 1 in 15.7 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 16 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 10 | 1 | 1 in 10.0 | |
| 7 | 12 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 in 7.0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 14 | 0 | — | |
| All | 86 | 4 | 1 in 21.5 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 319 | 29 | 1 in 11.0 | 13 |
| 2025 | 385 | 27 | 1 in 14.3 | 16 |
| 2026 | 439 | 28 | 1 in 15.7 | 17 |
Drawn out at: 13 in 2024, 16 in 2025, 17 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 38% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30 | 3 | 1 in 10.0 | 18 |
| 2025 | 43 | 5 | 1 in 8.6 | 7 |
| 2026 | 86 | 4 | 1 in 21.5 | 21 |
Drawn out at: 18 in 2024, 7 in 2025, 21 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 187% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. This hunt also has a hybrid draw: up to 20% of licenses go at random to applicants with 5 or more points who fall below the cutoff. Nonresidents could get at most 20% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 16
- Doe pronghorn, 1st rifle season AF016O1R · 93 applicants
- Buck deer, early season, rifle DM016E1R · 40 applicants
- Buck deer, 1st rifle season DM016O1R · 26 applicants
- Buck deer, 2nd rifle season DM016O2R · 14 applicants
- Buck deer, 3rd rifle season DM016O3R · 17 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF016O3R · 10 applicants
- Either-sex elk, 4th rifle season EE016O4R · 5 applicants