San Juan, Elk Ridge limited-entry buck deer, muzzleloader
How many bonus points it took to draw this hunt in 2025, and your estimated chance at every point level.
240 residents applied for 14 permits (1 in 17.1 overall). Everyone with 22 or more points drew. At 20 points, 6 of 8 applicants drew bonus permits. The other 7 permits were drawn at random: an estimated 0.32% chance at 0 points, rising to 6.4% at 19 points.
Sure draw at 22+ points
92 nonresidents applied for 2 permits (1 in 46.0 overall). At 22 points, 1 of 2 applicants drew bonus permits. The one remaining permit was drawn at random: an estimated 0.11% chance at 0 points, rising to 2.5% at 21 points.
No sure draw
Compare every Utah deer hunt at your point level →
Odds by bonus points
Residents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 20 | 8 | 6 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| 19 | 7 | 1 | 1 in 7.0 | |
| 18 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 9 | 1 | 1 in 9.0 | |
| 15 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 12 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 8 | 2 | 1 in 4.0 | |
| 12 | 14 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 12 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 9 | 1 | 1 in 9.0 | |
| 9 | 21 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 13 | 2 | 1 in 6.5 | |
| 6 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 24 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 16 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| All | 240 | 14 | 1 in 17.1 |
Nonresidents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 21 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 20 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 19 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 11 | 1 | 1 in 11.0 | |
| 15 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| All | 92 | 2 | 1 in 46.0 |
Trends, 2023–2025
"Sure at" is the fewest bonus points where every applicant drew through the bonus pool that year.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 335 | 13 | 1 in 25.8 | 20 |
| 2024 | 302 | 13 | 1 in 23.2 | 21 |
| 2025 | 240 | 14 | 1 in 17.1 | 22 |
Points for a sure draw: 20 in 2023, 21 in 2024, 22 in 2025. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants fell 28% since 2023.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 153 | 1 | 1 in 153.0 | — |
| 2024 | 160 | 2 | 1 in 80.0 | 27 |
| 2025 | 92 | 2 | 1 in 46.0 | — |
Applicants fell 40% since 2023.
How this draw works
Utah reserves half of each hunt's permits for the applicants with the most bonus points. The rest are drawn at random from everyone left, and each bonus point gives you one extra random number; your best number is the one used. Drawing a permit resets your points for that species to zero. Utah DWR's explanation.
About the estimated chance. Actual odds at a single point level jump around because only a few permits are drawn at random. The estimate applies the draw's own rules to this year's applicant pool. Across all 2025 Utah hunts, it predicts the number of permits drawn at each point range to within about 1%. Applicant numbers change every year, so treat it as a guide. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in San Juan, Elk Ridge
- Limited-entry Buck Deer, archery DB1014 · 496 applicants
- Limited-entry Buck Deer, any legal weapon DB1022 · 864 applicants
- Multi-season Limited-entry Buck Deer, any legal weapon DB1046 · 105 applicants