Box Elder, Grouse Creek limited-entry bull elk, early season, any legal weapon
How many bonus points it took to draw this hunt in 2025, and your estimated chance at every point level.
195 residents applied for 6 permits (1 in 32.5 overall). Everyone with 18 or more points drew. At 17 points, 1 of 3 applicants drew bonus permits. The other 3 permits were drawn at random: an estimated 0.28% chance at 0 points, rising to 4.7% at 16 points.
Sure draw at 18+ points
59 nonresidents applied for 1 permit (1 in 59.0 overall). The only permit was drawn at random: an estimated 0.21% chance at 0 points, rising to 5.0% at 23 points.
No sure draw
Compare every elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by bonus points
Residents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 in 3.0 | |
| 16 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 in 4.0 | |
| 11 | 7 | 1 | 1 in 7.0 | |
| 10 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 12 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 11 | 1 | 1 in 11.0 | |
| 6 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 15 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 15 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 21 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 20 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 26 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 27 | 0 | — | |
| All | 195 | 6 | 1 in 32.5 |
Nonresidents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 20 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 19 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 in 7.0 | |
| 5 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| All | 59 | 1 | 1 in 59.0 |
Trends, 2023–2025
"Sure at" is the fewest bonus points where every applicant drew through the bonus pool that year.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 181 | 8 | 1 in 22.6 | 17 |
| 2024 | 168 | 7 | 1 in 24.0 | 18 |
| 2025 | 195 | 6 | 1 in 32.5 | 18 |
Points for a sure draw: 17 in 2023, 18 in 2024, 18 in 2025. If that trend holds, expect to need about 18 points for a sure draw in 2026. Applicants rose 8% since 2023.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 50 | 1 | 1 in 50.0 | — |
| 2024 | 59 | 1 | 1 in 59.0 | — |
| 2025 | 59 | 1 | 1 in 59.0 | — |
Applicants rose 18% since 2023.
How this draw works
Utah reserves half of each hunt's permits for the applicants with the most bonus points. The rest are drawn at random from everyone left, and each bonus point gives you one extra random number; your best number is the one used. Drawing a permit resets your points for that species to zero. Utah DWR's explanation.
About the estimated chance. Actual odds at a single point level jump around because only a few permits are drawn at random. The estimate applies the draw's own rules to this year's applicant pool. Across all 2025 Utah hunts, it predicts the number of permits drawn at each point range to within about 1%. Applicant numbers change every year, so treat it as a guide. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Box Elder, Grouse Creek
- Limited-entry Bull Elk, muzzleloader Elk · 16 applicants
- Limited-entry Bull Elk, mid season, any legal weapon Elk · 138 applicants