Deer Area 78 type 1: antlered mule deer
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
162 nonresidents put this hunt first in the regular draw for 28 licenses (21 by preference points, 7 at random). Everyone with 10 or more points drew. At 9 points, 7 of 8 drew. Everyone else had about a 5.0% chance in the random draw (7 licenses, 141 applicants).
Sure draw at 10 points
1,403 residents put this hunt first for 188 licenses. Residents draw at random with no points, so everyone's chance is about the same: an estimated 13%.
Random draw, no points
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Odds by preference points
Nonresidents
| Preference points (nonresident) | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 11 | 4 | 4 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| < 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 9 | 8 | 7 | 1 in 1.1 | |
| < 9 | 140 | 0 | — | |
| All | 162 | 28 | 1 in 5.8 |
Residents
| Choice | Applicants | Licenses | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| First choice | 1,403 | 188 | 13% |
| Second choice | 323 | ||
| Third choice | 101 |
Residents draw at random with no points. WGFD reports applicants but not how many residents drew, so the chance is licenses ÷ first-choice applicants, an estimate.
Nonresident special draw
The special draw is a separate application with higher-priced licenses (40% of the nonresident quota) and usually fewer applicants. 70 nonresidents put this hunt first in the special draw for 19 licenses (15 by preference points, 4 at random). Everyone with 6 or more points drew. At 5 points, 1 of 2 drew. Everyone else had about a 7.3% chance in the random draw (4 licenses, 55 applicants).
| Preference points (nonresident) | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| < 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| < 5 | 54 | 0 | — | |
| All | 70 | 19 | 1 in 3.7 |
WGFD hunt description: “ANTLERED MULE DEER O” (as printed in the report, which cuts descriptions at 20 characters). Check the regulations for exact boundaries and dates.
Trends, 2024–2026
"Sure at" is the fewest preference points where every nonresident drew in the point draw that year (0 = any points drew).
| Year | Applicants | Licenses | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 141 | 29 | 1 in 4.9 | 9 |
| 2025 | 115 | 28 | 1 in 4.1 | 7 |
| 2026 | 162 | 28 | 1 in 5.8 | 10 |
Points for a sure draw: 9 in 2024, 7 in 2025, 10 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 10 points to be needed in 2027. Applicants rose 15% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Licenses | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1,031 | 191 | 1 in 5.4 | — |
| 2025 | 1,091 | 193 | 1 in 5.7 | — |
| 2026 | 1,403 | 188 | 1 in 7.5 | — |
Applicants rose 36% since 2024.
How this draw works
Wyoming draws elk, deer and antelope licenses by preference points for nonresidents only. In each nonresident draw (regular and special), 75% of licenses go to the applicants with the most points, and the other 25% are drawn at random from everyone who missed, regardless of points. Parties use their average points, which is why some levels read "< N". Residents don't use points for these species: they're drawn at random. Points apply to your first choice; if you don't draw it, you gain a point. WGFD: Understanding the draw.
About the numbers. From WGFD's 2026 demand reports. The point-draw results are actual; the chance of drawing in the random draw is an estimate (random licenses ÷ applicants), and so is the resident chance. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Deer Area 78
- Any white-tailed deer, type 3 D078-3 · 51 applicants