Unit 40 buck deer, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
57 adult residents put this hunt first; 18 drew (32%). Drawn out at 3 preference points: 2 of 12 applicants with 3 drew.
Drawn out at 3 points
24 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 6 drew (25%). Drawn out at 8 preference points: 2 of 2 applicants with 8 drew. 2 drew below the cutoff, through the hybrid random draw (about 22% of eligible applicants with 5+ points).
Drawn out at 8 points
Compare every Colorado deer hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 13 | 13 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 12 | 2 | 1 in 6.0 | |
| 2 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| All | 57 | 18 | 1 in 3.2 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| All | 24 | 6 | 1 in 4.0 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 77 | 17 | 1 in 4.5 | 3 |
| 2025 | 67 | 17 | 1 in 3.9 | 3 |
| 2026 | 57 | 18 | 1 in 3.2 | 3 |
Drawn out at: 3 in 2024, 3 in 2025, 3 in 2026. The bar has held steady at about 3 points. Applicants fell 26% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30 | 6 | 1 in 5.0 | 12 |
| 2025 | 20 | 6 | 1 in 3.3 | 7 |
| 2026 | 24 | 6 | 1 in 4.0 | 8 |
Drawn out at: 12 in 2024, 7 in 2025, 8 in 2026. The bar has been falling. Applicants fell 20% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 40
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- Buck deer, 3rd rifle season DM040O3R · 234 applicants
- Buck deer, 4th rifle season DM040O4R · 100 applicants
- Buck deer, private land only, season 2, rifle DM040P2R · 32 applicants
- Buck deer, private land only, season 3, rifle DM040P3R · 40 applicants
- Buck deer, Ranching for Wildlife, season 1, rifle DM040W1R · 63 applicants
- Cow elk, late season, rifle EF040L1R · 57 applicants
- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF040O1M · 13 applicants
- Cow elk, 1st rifle season EF040O1R · 45 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF040O2R · 68 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF040O3R · 27 applicants