Unit 53 buck deer, 4th rifle season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
76 adult residents put this hunt first; 11 drew (14%). Drawn out at 15 preference points: 2 of 4 applicants with 15 drew. 2 drew below the cutoff, through the hybrid random draw (about 5.7% of eligible applicants with 5+ points).
Drawn out at 15 points
84 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 2 drew (2.4%). Drawn out at 29 preference points: 1 of 1 applicants with 29 drew. 1 drew below the cutoff, through the hybrid random draw (about 1.8% of eligible applicants with 5+ points).
Drawn out at 29 points
Compare every Colorado deer hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 18 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 in 4.0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 in 4.0 | |
| 9 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| All | 76 | 11 | 1 in 6.9 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 26 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 23 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 21 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 19 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| All | 84 | 2 | 1 in 42.0 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 44 | 7 | 1 in 6.3 | 13 |
| 2025 | 57 | 11 | 1 in 5.2 | 12 |
| 2026 | 76 | 11 | 1 in 6.9 | 15 |
Drawn out at: 13 in 2024, 12 in 2025, 15 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 73% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 83 | 1 | 1 in 83.0 | 27 |
| 2025 | 55 | 2 | 1 in 27.5 | 29 |
| 2026 | 84 | 2 | 1 in 42.0 | 29 |
Drawn out at: 27 in 2024, 29 in 2025, 29 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. This hunt also has a hybrid draw: up to 20% of licenses go at random to applicants with 5 or more points who fall below the cutoff. Nonresidents could get at most 20% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 53
- Buck deer, archery season DM053O1A · 38 applicants
- Buck deer, muzzleloader season DM053O1M · 23 applicants
- Buck deer, 2nd rifle season DM053O2R · 141 applicants
- Buck deer, 3rd rifle season DM053O3R · 191 applicants
- Buck deer, private land only, season 2, rifle DM053P2R · 18 applicants
- Buck deer, private land only, season 3, rifle DM053P3R · 22 applicants
- Doe deer, private land only, season 5, rifle DF053P5R · 40 applicants
- Bull elk, muzzleloader season EM053O1M · 26 applicants
- Bull elk, 1st rifle season EM053O1R · 69 applicants
- Cow elk, muzzleloader season EF053O1M · 12 applicants
- Cow elk, 1st rifle season EF053O1R · 28 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF053O2R · 29 applicants