Unit 54 buck deer, 4th rifle season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
110 adult residents put this hunt first; 11 drew (10%). Drawn out at 14 preference points: 3 of 4 applicants with 14 drew. 2 drew below the cutoff, through the hybrid random draw (about 4.2% of eligible applicants with 5+ points).
Drawn out at 14 points
82 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 2 drew (2.4%). Drawn out at 23 preference points: 1 of 2 applicants with 23 drew.
Drawn out at 23 points
Compare every Colorado deer hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 2 | 2 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| 13 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 10 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 in 4.0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 in 6.0 | |
| 5 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 17 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| All | 110 | 11 | 1 in 10.0 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 in 2.0 | |
| 22 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 21 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 20 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 19 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 17 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 13 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| All | 82 | 2 | 1 in 41.0 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 70 | 11 | 1 in 6.4 | 13 |
| 2025 | 88 | 11 | 1 in 8.0 | 14 |
| 2026 | 110 | 11 | 1 in 10.0 | 14 |
Drawn out at: 13 in 2024, 14 in 2025, 14 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 14 points to be needed in 2027. Applicants rose 57% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35 | 2 | 1 in 17.5 | 24 |
| 2025 | 59 | 2 | 1 in 29.5 | 17 |
| 2026 | 82 | 2 | 1 in 41.0 | 23 |
Drawn out at: 24 in 2024, 17 in 2025, 23 in 2026. The bar has been falling. Applicants rose 134% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. This hunt also has a hybrid draw: up to 20% of licenses go at random to applicants with 5 or more points who fall below the cutoff. Nonresidents could get at most 20% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 54
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- Buck deer, 2nd rifle season DM054O2R · 318 applicants
- Buck deer, 3rd rifle season DM054O3R · 206 applicants
- Doe deer, archery season DF054O1A · 18 applicants
- Doe deer, muzzleloader season DF054O1M · 14 applicants
- Doe deer, 1st rifle season DF054O1R · 48 applicants
- Doe deer, 2nd rifle season DF054O2R · 49 applicants
- Doe deer, 3rd rifle season DF054O3R · 29 applicants
- Doe deer, private land only, season 5, rifle DF054P5R · 10 applicants
- Bull elk, muzzleloader season EM054O1M · 76 applicants
- Bull elk, 1st rifle season EM054O1R · 166 applicants