Unit 444 buck deer, 4th rifle season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
49 adult residents put this hunt first; 16 drew (33%). Drawn out at 2 preference points: 8 of 12 applicants with 2 drew.
Drawn out at 2 points
47 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 5 drew (11%). Drawn out at 6 preference points: 2 of 3 applicants with 6 drew.
Drawn out at 6 points
Compare every Colorado deer hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 2 | 12 | 8 | 1 in 1.5 | |
| 1 | 13 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 16 | 0 | — | |
| All | 49 | 16 | 1 in 3.1 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 in 1.5 | |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| All | 47 | 5 | 1 in 9.4 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 50 | 17 | 1 in 2.9 | 1 |
| 2025 | 48 | 16 | 1 in 3.0 | 2 |
| 2026 | 49 | 16 | 1 in 3.1 | 2 |
Drawn out at: 1 in 2024, 2 in 2025, 2 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 2 points to be needed in 2027.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | 4 | 1 in 6.3 | 2 |
| 2025 | 24 | 4 | 1 in 6.0 | 3 |
| 2026 | 47 | 5 | 1 in 9.4 | 6 |
Drawn out at: 2 in 2024, 3 in 2025, 6 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 88% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 25% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 444
- Buck deer, muzzleloader season DM444O1M · 28 applicants
- Buck deer, 2nd rifle season DM444O2R · 124 applicants
- Buck deer, 3rd rifle season DM444O3R · 95 applicants
- Doe deer, muzzleloader season DF444O1M · 5 applicants
- Doe deer, 2nd rifle season DF444O2R · 36 applicants
- Doe deer, 3rd rifle season DF444O3R · 13 applicants
- Either-sex deer, archery season DE444O1A · 70 applicants
- Either-sex deer, private land only, season 2, rifle DE444P2R · 9 applicants
- Either-sex deer, private land only, season 3, rifle DE444P3R · 13 applicants
- Bull elk, 4th rifle season EM444O4R · 10 applicants
- Cow elk, 2nd rifle season EF444O2R · 60 applicants
- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF444O3R · 30 applicants