Unit 40 either-sex elk, muzzleloader season
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
107 adult residents put this hunt first; 24 drew (22%). Drawn out at 11 preference points: 9 of 15 applicants with 11 drew.
Drawn out at 11 points
49 adult nonresidents put this hunt first; 5 drew (10%). Drawn out at 28 preference points: 3 of 4 applicants with 28 drew.
Drawn out at 28 points
Compare every Colorado elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Residents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 17 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 12 | 5 | 5 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 11 | 15 | 9 | 1 in 1.7 | |
| 10 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 9 | 8 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 11 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 5 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 10 | 0 | — | |
| All | 107 | 24 | 1 in 4.5 |
Nonresidents
| Preference points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 29 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 28 | 4 | 3 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| 27 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 26 | 6 | 0 | — | |
| 25 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 24 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 23 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 22 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 18 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 16 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 7 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 4 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 3 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | — | |
| All | 49 | 5 | 1 in 9.8 |
Trends, 2024–2026
"Cutoff" is the preference point level where licenses ran out that year (CPW's "drawn out at" level).
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 106 | 24 | 1 in 4.4 | 10 |
| 2025 | 102 | 24 | 1 in 4.3 | 11 |
| 2026 | 107 | 24 | 1 in 4.5 | 11 |
Drawn out at: 10 in 2024, 11 in 2025, 11 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 12 points to be needed in 2027.
| Year | Applicants | Drew | Odds | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 55 | 5 | 1 in 11.0 | 26 |
| 2025 | 45 | 5 | 1 in 9.0 | 26 |
| 2026 | 49 | 5 | 1 in 9.8 | 28 |
Drawn out at: 26 in 2024, 26 in 2025, 28 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants fell 11% since 2024.
How this draw works
Colorado draws limited licenses by preference points, and only your first choice uses them. Licenses go to the applicants with the most points first; at the level where they run out (the "drawn out at" level) applicants are drawn at random. If you don't draw your first choice, you gain a point. Nonresidents could get at most 20% of this hunt's licenses. CPW big game hunting.
About the numbers. These are adult first-choice applicants, straight from CPW's 2026 draw recap. Youth and landowner licenses are drawn separately. The estimated chance is the share who actually drew at each point level, filled in from the cutoff where nobody held that many points. Applicant pools change every year. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Unit 40
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- Cow elk, 3rd rifle season EF040O3R · 27 applicants
- Cow elk, 4th rifle season EF040O4R · 28 applicants
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- Either-sex elk, archery season EE040O1A · 259 applicants
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- Either-sex elk, 2nd rifle season EE040O2R · 190 applicants