Elk Area 51 type 1: any elk
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
335 nonresidents put this hunt first in the regular draw for 9 licenses (7 by preference points, 2 at random). Everyone with 16 or more points drew. Everyone else had about a <1% chance in the random draw (2 licenses, 328 applicants).
Sure draw at 16 points
309 residents put this hunt first for 82 licenses. Residents draw at random with no points, so everyone's chance is about the same: an estimated 27%.
Random draw, no points
Compare every Wyoming elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Nonresidents
| Preference points (nonresident) | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| < 16 | 328 | 0 | — | |
| All | 335 | 9 | 1 in 37.2 |
Residents
| Choice | Applicants | Licenses | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| First choice | 309 | 82 | 27% |
| Second choice | 77 | ||
| Third choice | 46 |
Residents draw at random with no points. WGFD reports applicants but not how many residents drew, so the chance is licenses ÷ first-choice applicants, an estimate.
Nonresident special draw
The special draw is a separate application with higher-priced licenses (40% of the nonresident quota) and usually fewer applicants. 68 nonresidents put this hunt first in the special draw for 7 licenses (6 by preference points, 1 at random). At 15 points, 3 of 4 drew. Everyone else had about a 1.6% chance in the random draw (1 license, 62 applicants).
| Preference points (nonresident) | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 15 | 4 | 3 | 1 in 1.3 | |
| < 15 | 61 | 0 | — | |
| All | 68 | 7 | 1 in 9.7 |
WGFD hunt description: “ANY ELK SOUTH AND WE” (as printed in the report, which cuts descriptions at 20 characters). Check the regulations for exact boundaries and dates.
Trends, 2024–2026
"Sure at" is the fewest preference points where every nonresident drew in the point draw that year (0 = any points drew).
| Year | Applicants | Licenses | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 209 | 11 | 1 in 19.0 | 13 |
| 2025 | 237 | 11 | 1 in 21.5 | 17 |
| 2026 | 335 | 9 | 1 in 37.2 | 16 |
Points for a sure draw: 13 in 2024, 17 in 2025, 16 in 2026. The bar is rising at least one point a year, as fast as applicants earn points. Applicants rose 60% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Licenses | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 297 | 100 | 1 in 3.0 | — |
| 2025 | 285 | 100 | 1 in 2.9 | — |
| 2026 | 309 | 82 | 1 in 3.8 | — |
How this draw works
Wyoming draws elk, deer and antelope licenses by preference points for nonresidents only. In each nonresident draw (regular and special), 75% of licenses go to the applicants with the most points, and the other 25% are drawn at random from everyone who missed, regardless of points. Parties use their average points, which is why some levels read "< N". Residents don't use points for these species: they're drawn at random. Points apply to your first choice; if you don't draw it, you gain a point. WGFD: Understanding the draw.
About the numbers. From WGFD's 2026 demand reports. The point-draw results are actual; the chance of drawing in the random draw is an estimate (random licenses ÷ applicants), and so is the resident chance. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Elk Area 51
- Antlerless elk, type 4 E051-4 · 85 applicants
- Any elk, type 2 E051-2 · 82 applicants
- Any elk, type 9, archery only E051-9 · 81 applicants