Elk Area 51 type 4: antlerless elk
How many preference points it took to draw this hunt in 2026, and your estimated chance at every point level.
30 nonresidents put this hunt first in the regular draw for 4 licenses (3 by preference points, 1 at random). Everyone with 2 or more points drew. Everyone else had about a 3.7% chance in the random draw (1 license, 27 applicants).
Sure draw at 2 points
85 residents put this hunt first for 21 licenses. Residents draw at random with no points, so everyone's chance is about the same: an estimated 25%.
Random draw, no points
Compare every Wyoming elk hunt at your point level →
Odds by preference points
Nonresidents
| Preference points (nonresident) | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| < 2 | 27 | 0 | — | |
| All | 30 | 4 | 1 in 7.5 |
Residents
| Choice | Applicants | Licenses | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| First choice | 85 | 21 | 25% |
| Second choice | 51 | ||
| Third choice | 11 |
Residents draw at random with no points. WGFD reports applicants but not how many residents drew, so the chance is licenses ÷ first-choice applicants, an estimate.
WGFD hunt description: “ANTLERLESS ELK” (as printed in the report, which cuts descriptions at 20 characters). Check the regulations for exact boundaries and dates.
Trends, 2024–2026
"Sure at" is the fewest preference points where every nonresident drew in the point draw that year (0 = any points drew).
| Year | Applicants | Licenses | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | 7 | 1 in 3.1 | 1 |
| 2025 | 32 | 7 | 1 in 4.6 | 2 |
| 2026 | 30 | 4 | 1 in 7.5 | 2 |
Points for a sure draw: 1 in 2024, 2 in 2025, 2 in 2026. If that trend holds, expect about 2 points to be needed in 2027. Applicants rose 36% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Licenses | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 113 | 42 | 1 in 2.7 | — |
| 2025 | 116 | 42 | 1 in 2.8 | — |
| 2026 | 85 | 21 | 1 in 4.0 | — |
Applicants fell 25% since 2024.
How this draw works
Wyoming draws elk, deer and antelope licenses by preference points for nonresidents only. In each nonresident draw (regular and special), 75% of licenses go to the applicants with the most points, and the other 25% are drawn at random from everyone who missed, regardless of points. Parties use their average points, which is why some levels read "< N". Residents don't use points for these species: they're drawn at random. Points apply to your first choice; if you don't draw it, you gain a point. WGFD: Understanding the draw.
About the numbers. From WGFD's 2026 demand reports. The point-draw results are actual; the chance of drawing in the random draw is an estimate (random licenses ÷ applicants), and so is the resident chance. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Elk Area 51
- Any elk, type 1 E051-1 · 309 applicants
- Any elk, type 2 E051-2 · 82 applicants
- Any elk, type 9, archery only E051-9 · 81 applicants